Analysis: Annual breakdown of Nuggets season schedule

I was right about something.

When I heard the 2011-12 NBA schedule was set to be released this week, I looked back at my prediction for the Nuggets last season and came across this gem in the final paragraph:

“If (coach George) Karl’s ever-improving health allows him to stay on the bench for the entire season, and the Nuggets can avoid injuries … they should be in line for a 50-32 record.”

Lo and behold, the Nuggets played inspired basketball after the All-Star break, winning 18 of 25 games after the All-Star break to finish 50-32 and record their fourth straight 50-win season.

Led once again by Karl – one of only seven coaches in NBA history with 1,000 regular-season wins – the Nuggets are scheduled to open the 2011-12 season Nov. 3 on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers before playing their home-opener Nov. 5 against the Golden State Warriors.

Here are other marquee games, pertinent notes and another prediction as the Nuggets begin their quest for a fifth consecutive 50-win season.

Nov. 5-Dec. 5: Comforts of Home

The facts: After facing the Trail Blazers in their season-opening Northwest Division showdown, the Nuggets are scheduled to play 12 of their next 15 games at the Pepsi Center, where they have been absolutely dominant under Karl.

Recent history: Denver has won at least 33 home games each of the past four years and is 201-65 (.756) at the Pepsi Center since Karl took over midway through the 2004-05 season.

Analysis: A dozen home games early in the season should help a young Nuggets team gain some confidence and build momentum, but it won’t be a walk in the park. The stretch includes eight games against 2011 playoff teams, including reigning division champion Oklahoma City on Dec. 1.

The facts: With two of the most formidable offenses in the league, the Nuggets and Knicks are must-see for NBA fans who love seeing the scoreboard light up.

Denver won 120-118 at the Pepsi Center last year, while New York prevailed 129-125 at Madison Square Garden.

Recent history: Each of the past four meetings have been decided by four points or less, and the Nuggets are 9-2 at home against the Knicks since 2000-01.

Analysis: There’s really only one thing to say about this matchup: Get your tickets now because you will want to be in the building for this nationally televised game.

Dec. 7-13 Road Test

The facts: After hanging around Denver for the better part of four weeks, the Nuggets will hit the road for a five-game trip that includes a Dec. 12 game against the reigning NBA champion Dallas Mavericks.

Recent history: The Nuggets lost 13 of the first 18 road games last season, but regrouped to go 12-11 away from home. That stretch included a 104-96 win in Dallas on April 6.

Analysis: Three of the five games are against 2011 playoff teams – Philadelphia, Dallas and Memphis – and the trip ends with a grueling stretch of four games in five nights. It’s only December, but each win will carry a lot of weight during a playoff chase in April.

Jan. 13 Miami Heat

The facts: The Heat fell two wins short of the NBA title last season, and should be among the favorites to reach the Finals again in 2011-12.

Recent history: The game falls on the one-year anniversary of Denver’s 28-point blowout of Miami in 2010-11, and the Nuggets have won nine in a row against the Heat at the Pepsi Center.

Analysis: By going 18-7 after the All-Star break last season, the Nuggets proved that team play can be successful in a star-studded league. Extending their home winning streak over Miami to 10 games would help reinforce that theory.

The facts: The end of an era arrived when coach Phil Jackson retired in May, but the Lakers figure to remain among the NBA elite under new coach Mike Brown, who had tremendous success in Cleveland.

Brown was the Nuggets’ video coordinator in the 1990s, and he was roommates with Colorado Avalanche general manager and executive vice president Greg Sherman at the University of San Diego.

Recent history: Denver went 2-1 against the Lakers last season, improving to 5-2 during the regular season since the two teams met in the 2009 Western Conference finals.

Analysis: Because of their rich history of glamour and success, the Lakers are always a big draw at the Pepsi Center. This year will be no different as the Nuggets begin a power-packed three-game homestand that also includes games against San Antonio and Portland.

March 23-April 4 Historic Journey

The facts: The playoff push will be in full swing when the Nuggets embark on an eight-game, 13-day trip that starts in Utah and ends across the country in Charlotte. The schedule includes a rematch with the Knicks and two sets of back-to-back games.

Recent history: Denver’s only other eight-game trip in its NBA history occurred during the 2008-09 season, but it was essentially two four-game trips sandwiched around the All-Star break. This itinerary is the real deal.

Analysis: The Nuggets went 5-3 on their eight-game excursion two years ago. Considering they will play in traditionally difficult arenas in Utah, Chicago, New York, Orlando and Miami, matching that record would be considered a success.

Facts: As was the case in 2010-11, the Northwest Division title could be on the line as Denver plays four home games in a five-game stretch to close the regular season.

Recent history: One or two possessions were the difference between the Nuggets and Thunder during their 2011 first-round playoffs series; four of the five games were decided by four points or less as OKC prevailed 4-1 in the series.

Analysis: Denver saw its seven-game home winning streak against the Thunder end at the most inopportune time last spring.

Oklahoma City essentially clinched the division with a victory at the Pepsi Center on April 5, so the Nuggets will be highly motivated for another high-stakes matchup.

Final Thoughts

The Nuggets were an inspired bunch over the final two months of 2010-11, and they will be fun to watch again in 2011-12 while competing in one of the NBA’s toughest divisions.

Building on what they started, expect the Nuggets to once again compete for a division title and a top-four seed in the Western Conference. Chances are I won’t be able to project the correct record two years in a row, so maybe I’ll quit while I’m ahead.