What's the most difficult job in sports? Coaching the Lakers and trying to include the four super stars in your offense? Being tied with Tiger Woods on the last day of a golf tour and being paired against him? Facing Barry Bonds in the 9th inning with the bases loaded and the score is tied?
They would all be very difficult situations and might get some votes as #1, but to me, the most unrewarding situation would be a General Manager like John Nash, or talent evaluator like Mark Warkentien of an NBA team on June 24th .
On that day, teams in the NBA will have their annual draft to improve their teams. Earlier in the year, the NFL had their draft and that was a tea party compared to what we will see on the 24th of June. The NFL picks from their minor league farm system called the NCAA college football. There are about 10 major conferences that produce 80% of the players.
You can't come out any earlier than your junior year so you have plenty of time to scout each player-and of course, football is only played the United States so you don't have to travel to see players. You can chart players almost through 8 rounds and know how many warts each one has on the bottom of his feet.
Baseball and basketball, on the other hand, really have a different challenge. Baseball has a hundred rounds and they draft anyone who has ever picked up a glove. You never know if your draft is a good one in baseball until 5 years later.
Someone like Kurt Schling was taken late and for two years you never heard anything about him down in the minors. So really no one even keeps track of a baseball draft. No one really cares about draft day in baseball except a drafted player's mother or dad.
Now you take a basketball draft. In order to improve your team through the draft in the NBA, you have to have a full-time international staff to scout Europe, Asia, and South America. You have to have a prep staff to scout the players coming out of high school. You have to have a crystal ball and scouts to figure out who's coming out of college early and how good is the senior class this year.
Do you look at the big picture and draft a young high schooler who will help your team in 3 years? Or do you draft college seniors who might help you this year? Or do you draft Europeans who can shoot and pass as their strength? Or do you draft high schoolers that can run and jump better?
Let's run down a few scenarios that might pop up this year and have come up in the past years.
Take the case of Darius Miles and Zach Randolph of the Blazers. Both would be coming out of college this year if they had stayed the regular course. With what we know of Darius and Zach this past year, where do you think they would be drafted on the 24th of June?
Top 5 I am sure. That's why the NBA draft is such a crap-shoot. After the last 3 picks in the NBA draft, everything is a matter of guess and keep your fingers crossed.
You know what an NFL quarterback can really do after 5 years of college (1 year of red shirting and 4 years of play), but how do you know what Jermaine O'Neal is going to do after high school graduation? If you take a chance on a Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett out of high school, how long will it be before they help you win games?
This year, only one rookie taken in the 1st round of last year's draft made it to the playoffs. His name was Carmelo Anthony and Denver picked up four veteran players that helped the cause.
The Blazers have one full-time and one part timer that do nothing but scout international players. Chico Averbuck is the full-timer, and that's why on some early mock drafts you saw some international names pop up. Remember you have the same age problem over there as here.
When it comes time for the Blazers to pick twice in the 1st round, do they take someone we all know, like Luke Jackson of Oregon? He is a 6'-7" guard or small forward who has the experience of 4 years of college.
Or do you listen to Chico and maybe take Andres Biedrino, a 6'-11" power forward out of Latvia? He weighs 240 and has great wingspan. Or maybe Kosta Perovic of Belgrade? He is 7'-2" and has a tremendous up side. It was a little difficult to scout him in Belgrade and Tel Aviv where the European championships were held because of all the potential war problems.
Or do you go really young and take Tigo Splitter with one of your picks? He is 18 years old, but is 7' and they say he is better than Dirk Nowitzki at that age. He is from Bilbao, Brazil, and yes, he played in the world championships in Indianapolis last year at age 17.
But if you are John Nash, maybe you want to look at an American high school player with one of your picks and take someone like Josh Smith of Oak Hill Academy. He is 6'-8" and plays outside with a good jumper and can jump out of the gym. He probably will pass up the University of Indiana, but is two years away from helping a team, something like Zach Randolph and Darius Miles.
Or do you go with experience and take a guard like Devin Harris who stayed at Wisconsin for three years? There is also Josh Childress, of Stanford, and Davis Harrison of Colorado, both juniors in college this year.
I think you're starting to get the point. The most difficult job in sports is trying to decide which way to go on the 24th of June with your pick in the NBA draft. Young, old, local, international, future, win right now, center, outside shooter, big point guard. All of the above will be there when the Blazers decide that day. It sure will make for some interesting second-guessing. See you at the Rose Garden on the 24th!
